Washington public health officials and researchers say social distancing appears to be helping slow the spread of COVID-19 in the Seattle area, where many of the first U.S. deaths occurred, but Governor Jay Inslee says that the public still needs to be prepared for the state’s current two-week stay-at-home order to be extended. Dr. Jeff Duchin, the public health officer for Seattle and King County, says a new analysis by the Bellevue-based Institute of Disease Modeling provides a powerful indication that the region needs to double-down on the policies it’s already adopted. In two papers released Monday, the institute acknowledged that much remains unknown about rates of infection, but based on available data and a variety of assumptions, its computer models suggest that a measure of transmission has fallen. In late February, each person with COVID was infecting about 2.7 other people; by March 18, that number had dropped to 1.4. Researchers caution the numbers were rough estimates. Duchin felt confident saying the rate of transmission is lower than it was, but he wouldn’t put much stock in the precise figure. To see a drop in the number of new cases, the measure of transmission would have to be below 1. More than 65-thousand people have been tested for coronavirus in Washington, according to the state Department of Health. Of those, 4,900 have tested positive and at least 195 people have died. (AP)
